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EU NEWS

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING and welcome to Brussels Playbook. Suzanne Lynch here guiding you through another busy day. The Brussels rumor mill was in overdrive last night amid signs the European Commission would imminently slap fines on U.S. tech giants Apple and Meta. German daily Handelsblatt reported Tuesday that the long-delayed action under the EU’s Digital Markets Act will be announced today.

I’ll be back in the Playbook chair Thursday.

DRIVING THE DAY: LONDON SUMMIT ON UKRAINE

MORE BABY STEPS: It’s just a few days since U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the Trump administration would abandon Ukraine peace talks if no progress is made. Now, the top U.S. diplomat has pulled out of today’s talks in London.

Background: Rubio had been scheduled to attend the meeting with foreign ministers and top officials from Europe and Ukraine, but the State Department announced Tuesday he would no longer go.

Reading the runes: Washington insisted talks were proceeding as planned. “The negotiations continue. We feel again we are hopefully moving in the right direction,” the White House press secretary said Tuesday, adding that Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff would visit Russia (for the fourth time) by the end of the week.

Slimmed-down summit: A senior U.K. official insisted today’s London summit, which Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will attend, will still be “a significant moment,” but agreed that the key aim of the get-together was to not let the trail go cold on a potential ceasefire, Esther Webber reports from London. U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg is expected to lead the American delegation, per my London Playbook colleagues.

Trump’s latest plan: The Telegraph reports Trump is proposing Russian President Vladimir get to keep large swathes of Ukrainian territory, with the U.S. to officially recognize Crimea as a part of Russia. Axios reports the plan also includes unofficial U.S. recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the 2022 invasion. Right on cue, the Financial Times reported last night that Putin had agreed to freeze the conflict along the current front line.

VIEW FROM KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv is ready to negotiate directly with Moscow to end the war — if Putin first agrees to a full ceasefire, Veronika Melkozerova reports. That marks a significant shift in tone, as Ukraine has refused to engage in direct talks with the Kremlin since it launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ready to talk: “If the Russians are ready for a complete ceasefire, then after a complete ceasefire is established, we are ready for any format of negotiations with them,” Zelenskyy told POLITICO at a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday. Zelenskyy also said he wants to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the pope’s funeral this weekend (more on that below).

Kyiv’s red lines: But Zelenskyy dismissed the idea of recognizing Crimea as Russian. “There is nothing to talk about,” he told reporters. “This violates our constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine.”

VIEW FROM BRUSSELS: Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, told AFP in an interview that Putin was playing for time and doesn’t really want peace. She urged the Trump administration to increase pressure on Moscow, and said it would be a mistake for the U.S. to recognize Crimea as Russian (which she vowed the EU would never do). “Then Russia clearly gets what they want,” she said.

SPAIN UPS MILITARY SPENDING: Meanwhile, in the latest sign that European countries are getting serious about defense spending, Spain announced plans to meet the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP expenditure on defense by the end of the year, Aitor Hernández-Morales reports. Citing the “rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic context,” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the country, which is among NATO’s lowest defense spenders, would increase its total military expenditure this year to around €34 billion.

Guns vs. butter: Sánchez insisted that “not 1 cent” of the higher defense budget would be taken from existing social schemes or collected with new taxes. The PM’s left-wing coalition partners and his traditional allies within the parliament oppose what they call the country’s “militarization,” especially if it comes at the expense of Spain’s expansive welfare programs.

THE AMERICANS AREN’T COMING: For decades, Europe’s military logistics have been built on the assumption of American support. Much of the continent’s transport infrastructure still runs west to east, shaped by the expectation that U.S. reinforcements would arrive from across the Atlantic.

But what happens if the U.S. abandons Europe? As Martina Sapio writes in this piece, even assuming Europe could procure its own assets, moving troops, tanks and fuel across the continent would be a challenge.

NOW READ THIS — THE CZAR’S GAMBIT: The Kremlin and the world of chess have long been deeply embedded. But as Daria Meshcheriakova writes in a must-read investigation on POLITICO this morning, the link has taken on a new relevance as one of Russia’s top players has become a vocal propagandist for the Kremlin’s war, even personally delivering military equipment to the front line. Read all about how Arkady Dvorkovich has blurred the lines between politics and sport.

FAREWELLING POPE FRANCIS

IT’S CONFIRMED: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen — plus hundreds of world leaders and dignitaries — will attend Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome on Saturday. The Vatican announced the body of the late pontiff will today be moved to St Peter’s Basilica, where he will lie in state.

Room for diplomacy: Saturday’s mass will be an opportunity for world leaders to honor the late pope — but also to get some face-time with each other. Decorum aside, the European Commission has already been fielding questions as to whether von der Leyen will meet Trump, who’s also attending.

“The visit on Saturday is for a different reason. It is for the pope’s funeral, and that is the occasion for which the president will be traveling to Rome. I cannot exclude any other possible meetings,” a Commission spokeswoman said Wednesday, noting that von der Leyen herself has said it would be a good idea to meet with U.S. counterparts “once there is an agreement” on trade.

Reminder: Von der Leyen has yet to meet Trump since his reelection. (She was mysteriously a no-show at the reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris in December, which was Trump’s first international trip since winning the election, despite her team announcing earlier that week that she would attend.)

Meloni hospitality: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be on home turf as the host in Rome. She has previously suggested an EU-U.S. summit, but a trilateral meeting between Meloni, Trump and von der Leyen is perhaps the most likely.

Complicating matters: The Commission’s expected imminent fines against U.S. tech giants could rile up Trump right before a hoped-for meeting.

Pressing the flesh: Meanwhile, Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis is due to have a bilateral meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, according to his team. It would be the first face-to-face meeting between the EU and the U.S. administration since Maroš Šefčovič’s trip to Washington last week. (Dombrovskis will also attend the meeting of G7 and G20 finance ministers in Washington later today.)

Speaking of Bessent: The U.S. Treasury secretary told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that Trump’s trade war with China can’t be sustained by both sides and that Washington and Beijing will have to find ways to deescalate, Bloomberg reports.

Storm clouds ahead: The annual meeting of finance chiefs and central bankers is continuing in Washington as the IMF on Tuesday downgraded its economic forecast due to the Trump tariff war. It cut its forecast for global growth to 2.8 percent, slashing its growth predictions for the United States and China in particular. Eurozone GDP will also drop by 0.2 percentage points.

Self-inflicted wounds: The IMF cut its forecast for the U.S. economy by nearly a full percentage point to 1.8 percent, from 2.7 percent in January. It also raised its inflation forecast for the U.S. this year by a full percentage point to 3 percent. Write-up here.

COUNTDOWN TO COP

BRAZIL BECKONS: It may be more than eight months away but preparations for this year’s COP climate conference in Belém, Brazil are well underway. Reminder: This year’s climate pow-wow is a biggie, marking a decade since the 2015 landmark Paris accord, with countries (and the EU) due to sign off on finance commitments through 2035.

Preparation game: The European Parliament’s environment committee will host an exchange of views this afternoon on the EU’s COP30 preparations with Kurt Vandenberghe, director of the Commission’s climate department.

Zoomin’ in: Meanwhile, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.N. boss António Guterres are convening a “virtual closed door” meeting today to “discuss strengthening global efforts to tackle the climate crisis and accelerate a just energy transition.” Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa are slated to attend.

Secret invite list: Guterres and Lula have sent out invites to a “small but representative group” of leaders, per a press release, but as senior climate reporter Zia Weise reports in today’s Morning Energy newsletter for POLITICO Pros, the organizers won’t say who else is dialling in. China is expected to join, while Trump is unlikely to make an appearance. Beijing has pushed for closer EU-China cooperation in the wake of Trump’s tariff war.

Awkward: The EU, which prides itself on being a world leader on tackling climate change, is lagging behind on its COP30 commitments. As Zia reports, countries were meant to file a fresh climate target covering the period up to 2035 in February, but Brussels missed that deadline. There’s no clarity on when the EU will be ready — a particular worry given the European target is expected to serve as a benchmark for other major emitters.

Reminder: The Commission recently postponed its 2040 climate target as it struggles to find sufficient support among governments, POLITICO reported earlier this month. The EU’s executive arm had originally promised to release a draft law in the first quarter of 2025, but has faced calls to water down its plan to cut emissions 90 percent below 1990 levels by 2040.

CITY OF CRIME

OFFICERS SPEAK OUT: Brussels police officers have sent an anonymous letter to press agency Belga throwing their support behind a controversial merger of the Belgian capital’s six police zones — and throwing their superiors under the bus. They claim politicians and managers who’d represented their views often spoke up “to defend their personal interests,” Hanne Cokelaere reports.

Accusations: The unnamed officers who wrote the letter claim that some majors are abusing their authority by being driven to meetings in police cars, or deploying “excessive” pressure to get access to judicial reports, according to an RTBF write-up.

Background: Brussels’ six police zones fall under the purview of the Belgian capital’s 19 mayors, and the federal government has pledged to merge them into one to close security gaps. Belgium’s Home Affairs Minister Bernard Quintin wants the merger to be done by 2027.

IN OTHER NEWS

SCHWAB’S WEF RESIGNATION LATEST: World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab is under investigation by the organization he founded after a whistleblower alleged financial and ethical misconduct by him and his wife, the Wall Street Journal reported last night. The WEF board of trustees decided to open a probe during an emergency meeting on Easter Sunday, the paper reports, and Schwab immediately resigned as WEF chairman. The Schwabs deny all the allegations, per the WSJ.

SCHENGEN UPDATE: The latest “State of Schengen” report will be issued today — it’s the annual stocktake of the workings of the EU’s free movement zone. Among the recommendations: strengthening law enforcement in border areas, improving the digitalization of border controls (for example though the upcoming entry-exit systems), and implementing more effective measures for returns.

ANOTHER FRENCH ELECTION? French President Emmanuel Macron is considering dissolving parliament and holding another snap election as soon as this fall, as his popularity improves, Bloomberg reports. The president hasn’t made a decision yet, per the report.

TIKTOK UNDER FIRE: EU regulators are looking into the “SkinnyTok” trend that has flooded TikTok with videos promoting extreme thinness to assess whether the platform is doing enough to protect kids online, Klara Durand and Océane Herrero write.

HUNGARY’S DISSENT CRACKDOWN: Last week, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party adopted a bill that would allow the Hungarian government to temporarily strip dual citizens of their Hungarian passports for acting “in the interest of foreign powers.” In an op-ed for POLITICO, David Koranyi, the president of Action for Democracy, writes: “The ambitions of this bill are clear as day. This is not about national security; it’s about silencing dissent.”

MUSK STEPPING BACK AS TESLA TANKS: Elon Musk will step back from U.S. government work to focus on running Tesla, which reported a 20 percent drop in sales and a net income reduction of 71 percent during the first quarter of 2025. POLITICO has the story.

NOSTALGIA LANE: As POLITICO marks its 10th anniversary in Brussels, our own Hans von der Burchard shared this trip down memory lane, marking the moment in 2015 that POLITICO Europe went live.

AGENDA

— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa participate in a virtual meeting of leaders on climate and just transition, organized by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.

— World Bank/IMF spring meetings continue in Washington. Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis delivers a speech at 3:15 p.m. Watch.

— Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius meets Seok Jong-gun, South Korea’s minister for the defense acquisition program administration, at 10 a.m.; receives Theo Francken, Belgium’s defense minister, at 12:15 p.m.

— Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera is in Mexico; meets Luz Elena González Escobar, Mexico’s secretary of energy; meets Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s secretary of environment.

— Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall hosts the high-level roundtable on Nature Credits.

— European Parliament Committee on the Environment, Climate and Food Safety holds an exchange of views with the European Commission on preparations for COP30 and CBD COP16; 4 p.m. Watch here.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 11C, rain.

GOING DUTCH? The NRC newspaper reported on Tuesday that Dutch parliamentary speaker Martin Bosma had suggested carving up Belgium, attaching Flanders to the Netherlands and giving Wallonia to France, during a dinner with MPs and the French ambassador back in February.

Thanks, but no thanks: A spokesperson for far-right, Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang, which is Belgium’s second-biggest party and advocates for independence, told my colleague Seb Starcevic that while Flanders and the Netherlands have “undeniable” similarities and the party’s leader has “a lot of sympathy” for Bosma’s “totally Utopic” proposal, it’s just “not realistic to think that Flanders and the Netherlands could form a nation.”

FILM FESTIVAL: The Brussels Short Film Festival returns on Thursday at Flagey and Vendôme cinemas, featuring international short films, competitions and workshops. Program here.

RIP: Francis Zammit Dimech, acting president of Malta and a former MEP, died on Monday. A final farewell will be held in Balluta, Malta, on Thursday. The Times of Malta has collected tributes.

BIRTHDAYS: Former MEP Paul Tang; POLITICO’s Cory Bennett; European Commission’s Pernilla Sjölin; Lionel Sola of the European Defence Agency; Court of Justice of the EU’s John Heffernan; Thorndon Partners’ Daphne Cafritz; Head of Global Magnitsky Justice campaign Bill Browder.

THANKS TO: Francesca Micheletti, Zia Weise, Hans von der Burchard, Seb Starcevic, Hanne Cokelaere, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Dean Southwell.

Source: POLITICO SRL · Rue de la Loi 62 · Brussels 1040 · Belgium

By ANDREW MCDONALD with BETHANY DAWSON PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Subscribe for free | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser

Good Friday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.

DRIVING THE DAY

BREXIT, FIVE YEARS ON: It feels now like a distant memory. But on this day five years ago, the slogans, campaigns, meaningful votes, Cooper and Grieve amendments and elaborate Chequers/Malthouse/Super Canada plans that consumed our politics for so long culminated in the U.K. finally leaving the European Union — to the (recorded) bongs of Big Ben. Westminster’s dictionary has moved on now to missions, milestones, steps and foundations. But the Brexit tune is still playing softly in the background, its lasting effect on British life plain to see … even if Keir Starmer doesn’t want to talk about it.

A stroll down memory lane: Cast your mind back to Playbook on the morning of Jan. 31, 2020. Boris Johnson and his Cabinet met in Sunderland for a day of “deliberately muted celebrations” to mark the start of the frenetic 11-month transition period that would culminate in a trade deal. Johnson would later declare the moment a “dawn of a new era” (yep, turned out true) and the beginning of “real national renewal” (debatable).

And in the opposition: Some Labour leadership contender called Keir Starmer responded “yes, of course,” when asked by some Lobby hack whether he would bring back freedom of movement for EU citizens if he ever became prime minister. Whatever happened to that guy?

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But just weeks later … the runaway Brexit train was finally derailed in the news agenda by a Covid-19 pandemic that claimed the lives of millions across the globe. The story never fully got back on the rails since, with Johnson making way for two further (doomed) Conservative prime ministers before Labour swept to power with a landslide … and then discovered how hard the whole government thing is.

Where are they now? Brexit-consumed PMs David Cameron and Theresa May are in the Lords, alongside Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott and negotiator David Frost … Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are back in the journalism game … Dominic Cummings is angry blogging again, while still fancying another crack at upending British politics … ex-No. 10 Director of Comms Lee Cain runs an advisory firm … former Brexit secretaries David Davis and Steve Barclay are enjoying the opposition life while Dominic Raab advises the, err, “World Gold Council” … “Mr. Brexit” Donald Trump is, well, you know that one … Mark Francois is a shadow defense minister … Steve Baker has gone skydiving … and Vote Leave Chair Gisela Stuart has ended up in charge of the interview process to appoint a sherpa to help renegotiate the Brexit settlement. Funny how these things turn out.

And on the other side: Ex-Chancellor Philip Hammond is in the Lords … David Gauke stood as an independent and is now leading a sentencing review for Labour … Dominic Grieve stood as an independent, too … Anna Soubry backed Labour and is back to criminal law … Our Future Our Choice activists Will Dry and Lara Spirit regenerated into a Tory plotter and top Lobby journo respectively … EU negotiator Michel Barnier managed to last the length of two Liz Truss premierships as French PM until being forced out in December … his sparring partner Olly Robbins is the top civil servant in the Foreign Office … legal warrior Gina Miller runs a very unsuccessful political party … and you probably know what happened to the shadow Brexit secretary who pushed for a second referendum.

It ain’t over till it’s over: Despite all the change, the future of what Britain looks like outside the EU is a very open question. We’ve entered a new phase in which Starmer is seeking a closer relationship with Brussels, and he will meet the 27 EU leaders on Monday as the first British leader to attend the informal gathering since Brexit.

To state the obvious: Starmer — who has nothing public-facing on the agenda today — won’t be saying anything today to mark the anniversary. Which leaves the other prime ministerial contenders and pretenders space to claim a slice of the limelight.

The survivor: Of those most involved in angling for Britain’s departure from the EU, Nigel Farage is one of the few who remains a truly central figure in Westminster. The Reform UK leader will be back on telly screens later with a carefully-timed speech at a rally in Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s constituency from 7 p.m. (and lots of interviews). As you might expect, Farage — like many of his fellow Brexiteers — isn’t altogether pleased with how things have turned out. He told his GB News show last night he is “disappointed in the way it’s been delivered.” Just wait ’til you get to the Remainers.

The rally was originally organized … to rub it in Badenoch’s face after she claimed over Christmas that Reform was inflating its membership numbers. A few hundred Reform members mostly drawn from Badenoch’s constituency will gather to hear their leader speak, before posing for a big group pic together. “We’re confident we have more members in North West Essex than the Tories do,” a Reform official quipped.

Also on the Faragenda: The potential cancelation of some local elections due to council reorganization — which Reform centered its latest party broadcast around — and Priti Patel, who earned a swift rebuke from her party leader for offering *that* defense of Tory immigration policy in her Thursday Sun interview. The shadow foreign secretary opted for a Badenoch-ian clarification last night, claiming she actually said she was “not happy” about the high immigration numbers while the Tories were in government.

And it’s true … that Patel said in the interview she was “not fine” with the big rise in immigration. But she also insisted she didn’t mislead voters who were told Brexit would lead to a reduction in immigration (it didn’t), defended her points-based system and said it was “totally distortionary” to suggest the government she served in had thrown open the U.K. borders. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp has the hospital pass of the morning broadcast round for the Tories — timings below.

Getting in on the act: The Lib Dems are sending out Ed Davey to play football and chat about Brexit. He’ll be having a kickabout with some cops and “at-risk youth” in the southwest, with a pool clip expected at noon. He reiterated his (once arch-Remoaner) party’s call for a new U.K.-EU customs union deal in his overnight comments marking the Brexitversary.

Now grab some overpriced booze and read this: POLITICO’s Sophie Inge has a fun read on how Rishi Sunak’s promise of a Brexit-bonus “radical simplification” of Britain’s alcohol taxes hasn’t quite turned out that way.

And this: Weeks before Germany’s election, the BBC is reporting this morning that opposition CDU leader Friedrich Merz will propose legislation on immigration that is designed to stop the far-right AfD owning the narrative … but could end up passing with its help. Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it an “unforgivable mistake.” It feels like a long time since former CDU leader Angela Merkel held out from letting Britain have more immigration carve-outs ahead of the Brexit vote in 2016.

HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS

NEVER-ENDING TURBULENCE: The tremors over the government’s push for a third runway at Heathrow continue, with the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reporting that Climate Secretary Ed Miliband voiced his concerns about the expansion at Cabinet on Tuesday. Spokespeople for Miliband and No. 10 didn’t deny the claim, pointing to the usual no comment on what was discussed in Cabinet — but it’s another awkward story for the government as it looks to present a united front on the push for growth.

Luckily enough: Someone who was in the Cabinet room and will know exactly what Miliband said is on a visit today — and taking questions from environment hacks who’ve spent the last few days thinking about little except Heathrow. Environment Secretary Steve Reed is off on a visit to the Royal Geographical Society this morning, where he’ll speak from 10.30 a.m. to farming groups, landowners and more as he launches a “national conversation” on land use.

Conservation, conversation, consultation: What Reed’s announcement means in practice is a consultation for a new land use framework, aimed at better managing the country’s landscape given climate change and the growing population. Reed will say the highest quality agricultural land will remain protected for food production — but that ministers will also be looking at how and where land can be used for the likes of solar farms and (growth-friendly) reservoirs. The Telegraph splashes on that bit, reporting Reed will say more than 10 percent of farmland will be axed for net zero projects and protecting wildlife.

But I don’t let them tell me what to do: Reed’s allies pushed back on the Telegraph story as a “misrepresentation” last night. To head off even more ill-feeling from farmers toward this government, Reed will insist today that his new framework, when it comes, “will not tell people what to do.”

After that … the environment secretary will take questions from environment hacks, and then sit down with Channel 4 for a lengthy interview. Expect plenty of refusals to talk about private meetings, etc.

Also on the government grid: Policing Minister Diana Johnson is on the morning round for Labour, armed with an announcement and some new funding for neighborhood policing. However, she’ll likely spend a fair bit of time talking about Yvette Cooper’s border security bill (as covered in yesterday’s Playbook PM).

ONE MORE Q FOR JOHNSON AND REED: Is Richard Hermer obstructing government policy? As the persistent briefing against the attorney general continues, the Times’ Geri Scott hears of a backlash from multiple ministers against Hermer’s moves to increase the power of government lawyers. Which isn’t very “cutting the weeds of regulation” of him. Hermer’s allies defend his actions as a necessity to avoid court battles.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Not sitting.

STAY AT HOME, PROTECT THE NHS: The i’s Jane Merrick reports health bosses will soon be told to focus £9 billion of government funding on trying to keep the elderly from being unnecessarily admitted to hospital or care homes, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting tries to ease the bed-blocking that adds to pressure on the health service. The paper splashes on the story.

QUIT THE MAINSTREAM: Political parties will be “left out in the cold” if they do nothing in response to voter dissatisfaction and the rise of populist challengers, according to a report from the Tony Blair Institute. The think tank says parties should “disrupt or be disrupted.” The Guardian has a full write-up.

KERCHING: 68,082 cases of online shopping fraud were reported across the U.K. in the 2023-24 financial year, totaling more than £56 million in losses, according to new stats revealed by a Lib Dem FOI investigation. Read more from PA.

DEMANDING: The BMA wants medical students, private health care staff and GPs to be given the right to strike in Labour’s Employment’s Rights Bill, the Mail’s Martin Beckford reports.

FOR THE FARMERS: 46 Labour MPs have written to the bosses of Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco saying the supermarkets are “failing in [their] moral and commercial obligations to our farmers.” The MPs offered to meet with the executives to discuss how to improve their terms and conditions and “level the playing field.”

BOTTOMS UP! Rachel Reeves’ changes to alcohol duty come into force on Saturday, the Treasury announces overnight. Draught duty will be cut by 1.7 percent — the chancellor said this will equal a penny off a pint — and alcohol duty will rise by 3.6 percent. The Times wrote an explainer of the changes when they were announced.

REPORTS OUT TODAY: Disability benefit claimants received £4.2 billion less than they were entitled to in 2023-24, according to the Public Accounts Committee, which said claimants receive an “unacceptably poor level of service” from DWP … Since 2021, the Home Office has made “little progress” developing measures to prevent violence against women and girls and to deliver long-term change, says the NAO. (The report splashes the Guardian.)

BEYOND THE M25

PLANE CRASH LATEST: U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed there were no survivors in the midair collision near Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. Recovery operations continued overnight on the icy Potomac River, with CBS News reporting that at least 40 bodies had been found so far.

New era begins: At a press briefing Thursday, Trump politicized the worst American air disaster in nearly two decades, telling reporters he believes diversity initiatives could have caused the crash, “because I have common sense.” He went on to attack former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden for the standards of air traffic controllers. More from POLITICO here.

Politics aside, serious safety questions are emerging: The New York Times reported last night that staffing at the air traffic control tower at Ronald Reagan National Airport was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary government report. My colleague Oriana Pawlyk reports that the crash came after years of close calls and warnings about the fragility of the U.S. air safety system.

SERIOUS TRUMP: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump’s desire to buy Greenland is “not a joke,” and that controlling the mineral-rich Arctic territory is “in our national interest and it needs to be solved.” Read more on POLITICO.

OMINOUS NEWS KLAXON: Satellite images show China’s military is building a huge complex 30 km southwest of Beijing which experts believe will house bunkers to protect Chinese military leaders during any conflict — including potentially a nuclear war, the FT reports. Is that … fine?

THE STURGEON SHOW: The Scottish Lobby has been having lots of fun picking through the best lines from a series of oddly very revealing Institute for Government interviews with former Holyrood heavyweights. Among many other things — read the full interviews here — former FM Nicola Sturgeon criticized her successor Humza Yousaf for binning her coalition with the Greens, and for failing to “reset” the party after her sudden resignation. The Scottish Sun and the Times have good write-ups.

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MEDIA ROUND

Crime Minister Diana Johnson broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … GMB (7.15 a.m.) … Today (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.). Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp broadcast round: Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former U.K. Border Force at Calais Chief Immigration Officer Kevin Saunders (8.10 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Conservative MP and Public Accounts Committee Chair Geoffrey Clifton-Brown(8.20 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Brexit turns 5.

Daily Express: ‘We need people who believe in Brexit.’

Daily Mail: Now prove your ‘growth agenda’ isn’t all hot air.

Daily Mirror: Shameful.

Daily Star: Armageddon outta here!

Financial Times: Headwinds and stagnating growth drive ECB to quarter-point rate cut.

i: Treat patients at home to prevent bed blocking, Streeting tells health bosses.

Metro: A nation of shoplifters.

The Daily Telegraph: Tenth of farmland axed for net zero.

The Guardian: Watchdog — women face epidemic of violence.

The Independent: Horror as 67 killed in plane and helicopter crash in Washington.

The Sun: How Vladdy dare you.

The Times: Legal chief ‘is freezing policy.’

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Economist: The revolt against regulation.

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

Power Play: Host Anne McElvoy talks to LinkedIn Co-founder Reid Hoffman about his investments in AI startups and his optimistic vision for the future versus the disruptive force of a world powered by AI.

EU Confidential: Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by former U.S. permanent representative to NATO Ivo Daalder, POLITICO’s Global Playbook author Suzanne Lynch and POLITICO’s labor reporter Nick Niedzwiadek, to talk through Trump’s Europe envoys.

Plus six of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:

Chopper’s political podcast: Former Vote Leave CEO Matthew Elliott, former Lib Dem Leader Vince Cable and Daily Mail parliamentary sketchwriter Quentin Letts mark the Brexit anniversary with host Christopher Hope.

The Rundown: Tory peer and former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine speaks to host Alain Tolhurst about devolution, urban regeneration, the economy and Reform UK.

Encompass: Host Paul Adamson talks to Labour MP and Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chair Emily Thornberry about Britain’s reputation on the international stage.

The Daily T: Former Chief Brexit Negotiator David Frost tells hosts Camilla Tominey and Kamal Ahmed how he thinks Brexit can be “rescued.”

Leading: Uzi Arad, a former national security adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, joins hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart to discuss intelligence agencies, Netanyahu and confidence in the Gaza cease-fire.

Lord Speaker’s Corner: Broadcaster and Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika discusses how she thought she was going to get canceled (but got a peerage instead), PMQs and retail crime.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: We’ll start the day with heavy downpours, changing to overcast by lunchtime. High 8C, low 6C.

CALL AN EMERGENCY PODCAST: JD Vance took time out from being U.S. vice president to have a go at podcaster Rory Stewart’s IQ.

AND MANY MORE: Newsnight is celebrating 45 years since it was first broadcast. There’s a fun round-up of big moments over on their X account.

CHEERS TO THAT! POLITICO is joining forces with the Munich Security Conference in an inaugural partnership — and we’re welcoming with it the first POLITICO Pub. Pretzel and schnitzel availability tbc. Join our all-star team at MSC from Thursday, Feb. 13. Full details here.

NOW READ: This blood pressure-raising piece in the Economist on the 12-hour A&E waits and the problems plaguing the NHS.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former Supreme Court President and crossbench peer Brenda Hale … Tory peer Stewart Jackson … Liberal Democrat peer Elizabeth Barker … LBC presenter Nick Ferrari … crossbench peer Michael Bichard … FCDO’s Director General Europe Deborah Bronnert.

Celebrating over the weekend: East Worthing and Shoreham MP Tom Rutland … Conservative peer Eleanor Laing … former Falkirk MP John McNally … Iceland’s former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir … Exeter MP Steve Race … former Redcar MP Jacob Young … former Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam … former Paisley and Renfrewshire North MP Gavin Newlands … former Lord Speaker Norman Fowler … Labour peer John Eatwell.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Catherine Bouris.