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GOOD MORNING — I’m Gabriel Gavin, bringing you this Friday edition of Playbook bright and early after last night’s late-running informal summit of presidents and prime ministers here in Brussels.

DRIVING THE DAY:

THE TRUMP PLAYBOOK: The European Union may have averted one transatlantic crisis this week but has already started thinking about the next. That was the message from diplomats, officials and politicians in the early hours of this morning, after leaders held a five-hour working dinner in the European Council building on how to handle an increasingly volatile U.S. President Donald Trump.

EU countries want to avoid a repeat of the Greenland crisis but they’re split on how to do it. Some — like France, Belgium and Spain — credit the EU’s joint position, pledge of retaliation and market-sinking trade-war fears with fending off Trump. Others, like the Baltics and Poland, say NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s strategy of flattering the U.S. president was what averted disaster.

Die is cast: The one thing they can all agree on is that there can be no going back. As Zoya Sheftalovich and Nicholas Vinocur report this morning, Trump’s fighting words on Greenland have had a profound impact on the EU and the bloc’s view of its U.S. frenemy. “This is the Rubicon moment,” said an EU diplomat from an eastern flank country. “It’s shock therapy. Europe cannot go back to the way it was before.”

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Illusory TACO: The consensus is that if Trump has threatened his NATO allies once, he can do it again. “The fact there are no tariffs from February is a positive development but we have to be prepared for Donald changing his mind,” said one diplomat after the preparatory meeting of ambassadors earlier in the day. “Nobody said TACO. Nobody thinks this is him chickening out. It’s de-escalation, but we have to be prepared for him changing his mind.”

Standing firm: It was Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who best articulated the mood. “We followed four key principles: firmness, outreach, preparedness and unity. And it was effective so going forward we should maintain this very approach,” she said.

New vibe: Another EU official familiar with the discussion agreed: “There was a clear change of mood in the room. The discussion among the leaders made clear that when a situation like the one that occurred a few days ago happens, a calm but quick and firm response is needed and it works.”

Thursday’s summit was initially convened to work out a retaliatory response to the threat of new U.S. tariffs, which were to have been imposed from Feb. 1. With the tariffs no longer on the table, the meeting was quickly overshadowed by the need to understand what deal, if any, had been struck between Trump and Rutte over Greenland.

What we know: Two officials told my colleagues Nette Nöstlinger and Jacopo Barigazzi that the proposed four points sketched out by Rutte centered on the renegotiation of a 1951 U.S. defense agreement and a broad promise by European governments to step up Arctic security. This could include adapting the original agreement for a “golden dome” — Trump’s proposed future missile-defense system. It could also include a provision for what would happen if Greenland obtained full independence from Denmark.

U.S. access: The proposals could also include extended U.S. military access to the island, along with a broad promise by European governments to increase their contribution to security in the region, including a potential NATO mission.

Aspirational goals: Some diplomats suggested the third and fourth points of the proposal may be, for now at least, more wishful thinking than firm commitments. Those points are: An understanding that the U.S. and EU won’t place further tariffs on each other; and the establishment of a supervisory body to monitor exploration rights, to prevent another major power, such as China or Russia, from winning the race for Greenland’s resources.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who had complained of being cut out of the conversation, will meet Rutte at NATO headquarters for a working breakfast this morning to discuss the situation, a national official told POLITICO.

Hush hush: Two diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about the sensitive talks, said those who — like Council President António Costa — have had personal readouts from Rutte about the details of what Trump was offered are cautious about sharing information too widely. They are keen to avoid leaks and speculation.

No hostility: “I still treat United States as our closest friend,” said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda on arrival at the meeting, adding that it was a mistake for Brussels to even contemplate using the so-called trade bazooka against an ally. A diplomat from a more cautious country said EU members broadly agreed on how to handle the crisis. “The question is one of tactics. Do you walk in wielding a big stick now, or do you do it later?” the diplomat said.

“Hysteria”: In Davos, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told POLITICO’s Dasha Burns that the Europeans had been wrong to stand up to Washington (he would say that, of course). “The hysteria level that hit here was just out of control — driven by the media, driven by this European hand-wringing,” Bessent said in the interview. “It was completely out of control.”

The EU’s plans to diversify away from America and reduce the bloc’s exposure to Trump’s whims will face another critical moment next month when leaders gather at a castle in rural Belgium to discuss strategic autonomy — though with this president, it’s entirely possible they’ll be tested again before then.

NOW HEAR THIS: On the EU Confidential podcast, we recap the summit — and the week that was. Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by Zoya, Nick and Tim Ross.

PLAYING POLITICS

RUNNING OUT OF STEAM? Ursula Von der Leyen has survived her fourth motion of censure in seven months by a wide margin.

On paper, the Commission president’s support is growing — drawing more and more votes in her favor each of the four times a no confidence motion has come up. A total of 390 lawmakers backed her Thursday, suggesting MEPs are growing weary of the far right repeatedly tabling censure motions. Or perhaps they are unwilling to destabilize the EU at a time when Europe is engulfed in multiple crises.

What helped: The fact it was a far-right motion means dissatisfied lawmakers from the center and left sides of the hemicycle voted against it. The other factor is that the European People’s Party (EPP) this week introduced tougher punishments for those breaking the party line in such votes, which dissuaded some EPP lawmakers critical of von der Leyen from voting against her.

But but but … even those rules did not prevent five EPP lawmakers from voting against von der Leyen or abstaining. As a result, for the next six months they will likely be banned from speaking in the hemicycle and from leading negotiations in any legislative file or resolution. The MEPs are: the Netherlands’ Jessika van Leeuwen and Sander Smit; Romania’s Loránt Vincze and Iuliu Winkler; and Slovenia’s Milan Zver.

MERCOSUR CONTROVERSY LOOMING: The Commission is now weighing up whether to provisionally apply the Mercosur agreement — despite Parliament voting to freeze its ratification of the trade deal with South American countries and send the text for legal review. If it were to go down this path, it could trigger another backlash if lawmakers see the executive as bypassing Parliament’s decision. This could trigger a fifth motion of censure against the Commission — this one supported by anti-Mercosur MEPs from all political groups.

Inside the Mercosur muddle: For weeks, now, the Commission had been expecting Parliament to send the Mercosur deal for a legal review and it undertook a concerted lobbying campaign to ensure it didn’t happen, Max Griera reports. This included asking heads of government to call lawmakers. The campaign ultimately failed, as domestic political pressures carved deep fault lines in the Parliament’s political groups and triggered massive infighting within Europe’s centrist party ranks.

DID METSOLA JUMP THE GUN? Meanwhile, MEPs from the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew Europe are annoyed that the EPP’s Roberta Metsola, the assembly’s president, didn’t coordinate with them on committing to unfreeze the EU-U.S. trade deal ahead of meeting leaders on Thursday.

Angry allies: An S&D official said Metsola did not consult with the second-largest group after POLITICO reported she was coming under pressure to smooth the passage of her decision. “The EPP is the only one exerting pressure” to unblock the U.S. trade deal, the official added. No Renew official could confirm consultation had taken place.

Pressure is huge. Now that Trump has toned down his tariff threats, it’s highly unlikely that the Parliament will move to freeze the next steps of the deal. Lawmakers from the trade committee are now expected to formalize the decision on Monday.

MIGRATION MOMENT

CALL TO BEEF UP MIGRATION RESPONSE: The role of Frontex and Europol in the EU’s approach to migration has to be strengthened, according to Marie-Pierre Vedrenne, France’s minister delegate to the interior minister. Speaking with Hanne Cokelaere in Cyprus, Vedrenne said she wasn’t calling for the agencies to “completely change their mandate” but simply to reinforce what works well and to engage with countries of migration departure and transit.

Tough talk: While those in Nicosia for Thursday’s Justice and Home Affairs Council were working through a lunch of souvlaki and stuffed vegetables, ministers were discussing how to return people to Syria and Afghanistan. “It’s a delicate subject — a difficult one, but it’s a necessary one,” Belgium’s Migration Minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt told reporters. In a letter to European Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner last year, Belgium and 19 other countries called for a joint European approach to voluntary and forced returns to Afghanistan.

Sweden wants a shift: Sweden’s deportation policy is focused on people who’ve committed crimes but faces difficulties including missing paperwork, a lack of political cooperation with the Afghan Taliban regime, trouble identifying people and difficult and expensive flights, Sweden’s Migration Minister Johan Forssell told a group of journalists at an impromptu presser. He called for an action plan: “One way or another, there must be a shift.”

Levers to pull: As the EU looks for leverage to get third countries to accept returns, Forssell said his country favors also including development cooperation on an EU level — “but we’re not really there yet … Our experience is quite simple, and that is that money talks.”

UNABLE TO REUNITE: Ukrainians serving prison sentences in Russian-occupied territory, and those forcibly abducted by Russian forces, are being left unable to enter the EU as a result of the bloc’s new Schengen Information System, risking being flagged as potential threats to public order and internal security. It has left some prisoners unable to rejoin loved ones abroad after gaining back their freedom.

Fairness warning: “We should be very careful not to treat Ukrainians from temporarily occupied territories as a security threat by default,” said Thijs Reuten, a Dutch center-left MEP and the European Parliament’s shadow rapporteur on Ukraine. Ekaterina Bodyagina has the full investigation.

IN OTHER NEWS

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. has sent an “armada” of warships toward Iran but hoped he would not have to use it, as he renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. Reuters reports the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and several guided-missile destroyers will arrive in the Middle East in the coming days.

FRESH UKRAINE TALKS: Russia has announced it will hold security talks with the U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Friday, Reuters reports. However, the Kremlin has warned that unless territorial issues can be resolved, a durable peace would not be possible.

Zelenskyy clap-back: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy didn’t mince his words when he spoke at Davos Thursday, accusing Europe of dithering in its support against Russia, and of preferring words over action. This prompted a sarcastic English-language post on X from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who listed the reasons why Hungary “cannot support your war efforts.”

No love lost: “The Ukrainian people, of course — despite your carefully chosen insults — can still count on us to continue supplying your country with electricity and fuel, and we will also continue to support refugees arriving from Ukraine,” Orbán said.

BORED OF PEACE: Trump’s plan to end wars is turning to a group of some of the world’s most warlike leaders — including Vladimir Putin and Aleksandr Lukashenko. In his weekly Declassified humor column, my colleague Paul Dallison asks: What could possibly go wrong?

Non-invitation: On Thursday, we said Denmark had confirmed it wouldn’t participate in Trump’s Board of Peace. Today, it may be worth pointing out that the Danes weren’t actually invited in the first place. Read the details in a statement put out by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Meanwhile, Canada’s invitation to join “what will be, the most prestigious Board of Leaders ever assembled, at any time” was publicly rescinded by Trump himself.

STUDIO SHOWDOWN: A bitter battle over Warner Bros. Discovery, which is pitting Netflix and Paramount against each other in a $82.7 billion buyout bid, is becoming a problem for the EU. After Warner accepted the Netflix bid, Paramount has met with the European Commission Directorate-General for Competition, Francesca Micheletti and Mari Eccles report.

JUST IN TIME: TikTok announced overnight it had closed a deal establishing a U.S. subsidiary of the platform to avoid a ban, with new owners including the U.S. private equity firm Silver Lake, Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence company MGX and Oracle, the tech giant co-founded by Larry Ellison, an ally of Trump. The deal allows TikTok’s Beijing-based parent company, ByteDance, to maintain a nearly 20 percent stake. Our U.S. colleagues break down everything you need to know about the deal here.

MOVE OVER FRANCE: The infamous Franco-German engine has competition — from Rome. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz appear set on sharing control of the EU’s economic agenda together, in what has become the bloc’s newest power couple.

Can’t get enough of each other: Officials from Meloni’s office told Jacopo Barigazzi that the right-wing prime minister met with Merz privately ahead of last night’s summit. And that’s not all — the pair will sit down today in Rome to sign a string of partnership agreements that could see Paris sidelined, according to our top team of reporters.

AGENDA

— World Economic Forum in Davos. Panel on Global Economic Outlook with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at 11 a.m. Watch live coverage on WEF’s Youtube channel.

— Coreper I meeting at 10:30 a.m.

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola receives the President of Ecuador Daniel Noboa at 11:00 a.m.

— Denmark’s PM Mette Frederiksen meets NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

— German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and several federal ministers are in Rome for German-Italian consultations. Merz meets Italian PM Giorgia Meloni bilaterally.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 9C, overcast.

SPOTTED … at POLITICO’s annual party at Davos: Former head of MI6 Richard Moore; EU Ambassador to the WTO João Aguiar Machado; MEPs Brando Benifeiand Lukas Sieper; European Innovation Council board member Ann Mettler; Bruegel Director Jeromin Zettelmeyer; CEPS CEO Karel Lannoo; Club of Rome Honorary President Sandrine Dixson-Declève; Robert & Ethel Kennedy Human Rights Center President Kerry Kennedy; Voto Latino co-founder María Teresa Kumar…

Along with … Bayer VP Helga Flores Trejo; TikTok’s Paolo Ganino; Vast CEO Max Haot; Barclays’ Germany CEO Ingrid Hengster; Bridgewater Co-Chief Investment Officer Bob Prince; PhRMA CEO Steve Ubl; Edelman President International Ed Williams; Weber Shandwick’s Greg Prager; FGS Global Partner Sebastian Vos; Holcim VP Cédric de Meeus; S&P Global/CERAWeek leaders James Rosenfield and Louis Carranza; Schneider VP Justin Saia …

And breathe … Euronews Chair Pedro Vargas David and CEO Claus Strunz; Handelsblatt editor-in-chief Sebastian Matthes; Business Insider editor-in-chief Moritz Seyffarth; Agencia EFE editor-in-chief José Manuel Sanz Mingote; Foreign Policy CEO Andrew Sollinger; POLITICO alums Ryan Heath and Matthew Kaminski; and POLITICO’s Cally Baute, Jamil Anderlini, Justine Lore, Dasha Burns, Anne McElvoy, Jamie Dettmer, Peter Snowdon, Kathryn Carlson, Gordon Repinski, Cristina Gonzalez, Sveva Berti, Mona Marsti and Mariona Espín.

LIFTING THE CUP: After days of tense voting, the Brussels bubble has crowned a winner in the EU Cafe Cup, naming the best spot for a coffee in the European Quarter. Playbook can reveal that Greek chain To Meli’s branch on Frère-Orban Square will be handed a trophy today, beating Schuman Roundabout’s Papillon to the top spot after more than 15,000 people cast ballots online.

FIRST STRIKE OF THE YEAR: Train connections across Belgium will be disrupted due to a strike from Sunday until Friday.

AMERICANS KEEP CLEAR: The U.S. Embassy in Brussels has warned its citizens to avoid demonstrations being held today and Saturday outside its embassy compound. Two separate protests are planned, first by a legal rights group and then by the Venezuelan diaspora.

BIRTHDAYS: MEP Jörgen Warborn; former MEP Sylvia-Yvonne Kaufmann; Sweden’s former PM Magdalena Andersson; European Investment Bank Vice President Nicola Beer; Senior Vice President of Policy and Director General for Europe at ITI Guido Lobrano; BDO’s Noel Clehane.

Celebrating Saturday: MEPs Evelyn Regner, Fernando Navarrete Rojas, Valentina Palmisano, Julie Rechagneux and Milan Mazurek; former European Commissioner Violeta Bulc; former MEP Neoklis Sylikiotis; Renew Europe’s Daniel Tanahatoe; Maria Elena Boschi, member of the Italian chamber of deputies and POLITICO 28 alum; Moon Jae-in, former president of South Korea.

Celebrating Sunday: MEP Ryszard Czarnecki, Merja Kyllönen; former MEP Roger Helmer; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; former French PM Jean-Marc Ayrault; Copa Cogeca’s Niall Curley.

THANKS TO: Camille Gijs, Victor Jack, Zoya Sheftalovich, Hanne Cokelaere, Nette Nöstlinger, Kathryn Carlson, Tim Ross, Playbook editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Ferdinand Knapp and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros.

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SOURCE: POLITICO

By ANDREW MCDONALD with BETHANY DAWSON PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Subscribe for free | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser

Good Friday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.

DRIVING THE DAY

BREXIT, FIVE YEARS ON: It feels now like a distant memory. But on this day five years ago, the slogans, campaigns, meaningful votes, Cooper and Grieve amendments and elaborate Chequers/Malthouse/Super Canada plans that consumed our politics for so long culminated in the U.K. finally leaving the European Union — to the (recorded) bongs of Big Ben. Westminster’s dictionary has moved on now to missions, milestones, steps and foundations. But the Brexit tune is still playing softly in the background, its lasting effect on British life plain to see … even if Keir Starmer doesn’t want to talk about it.

A stroll down memory lane: Cast your mind back to Playbook on the morning of Jan. 31, 2020. Boris Johnson and his Cabinet met in Sunderland for a day of “deliberately muted celebrations” to mark the start of the frenetic 11-month transition period that would culminate in a trade deal. Johnson would later declare the moment a “dawn of a new era” (yep, turned out true) and the beginning of “real national renewal” (debatable).

And in the opposition: Some Labour leadership contender called Keir Starmer responded “yes, of course,” when asked by some Lobby hack whether he would bring back freedom of movement for EU citizens if he ever became prime minister. Whatever happened to that guy?

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But just weeks later … the runaway Brexit train was finally derailed in the news agenda by a Covid-19 pandemic that claimed the lives of millions across the globe. The story never fully got back on the rails since, with Johnson making way for two further (doomed) Conservative prime ministers before Labour swept to power with a landslide … and then discovered how hard the whole government thing is.

Where are they now? Brexit-consumed PMs David Cameron and Theresa May are in the Lords, alongside Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott and negotiator David Frost … Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are back in the journalism game … Dominic Cummings is angry blogging again, while still fancying another crack at upending British politics … ex-No. 10 Director of Comms Lee Cain runs an advisory firm … former Brexit secretaries David Davis and Steve Barclay are enjoying the opposition life while Dominic Raab advises the, err, “World Gold Council” … “Mr. Brexit” Donald Trump is, well, you know that one … Mark Francois is a shadow defense minister … Steve Baker has gone skydiving … and Vote Leave Chair Gisela Stuart has ended up in charge of the interview process to appoint a sherpa to help renegotiate the Brexit settlement. Funny how these things turn out.

And on the other side: Ex-Chancellor Philip Hammond is in the Lords … David Gauke stood as an independent and is now leading a sentencing review for Labour … Dominic Grieve stood as an independent, too … Anna Soubry backed Labour and is back to criminal law … Our Future Our Choice activists Will Dry and Lara Spirit regenerated into a Tory plotter and top Lobby journo respectively … EU negotiator Michel Barnier managed to last the length of two Liz Truss premierships as French PM until being forced out in December … his sparring partner Olly Robbins is the top civil servant in the Foreign Office … legal warrior Gina Miller runs a very unsuccessful political party … and you probably know what happened to the shadow Brexit secretary who pushed for a second referendum.

It ain’t over till it’s over: Despite all the change, the future of what Britain looks like outside the EU is a very open question. We’ve entered a new phase in which Starmer is seeking a closer relationship with Brussels, and he will meet the 27 EU leaders on Monday as the first British leader to attend the informal gathering since Brexit.

To state the obvious: Starmer — who has nothing public-facing on the agenda today — won’t be saying anything today to mark the anniversary. Which leaves the other prime ministerial contenders and pretenders space to claim a slice of the limelight.

The survivor: Of those most involved in angling for Britain’s departure from the EU, Nigel Farage is one of the few who remains a truly central figure in Westminster. The Reform UK leader will be back on telly screens later with a carefully-timed speech at a rally in Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s constituency from 7 p.m. (and lots of interviews). As you might expect, Farage — like many of his fellow Brexiteers — isn’t altogether pleased with how things have turned out. He told his GB News show last night he is “disappointed in the way it’s been delivered.” Just wait ’til you get to the Remainers.

The rally was originally organized … to rub it in Badenoch’s face after she claimed over Christmas that Reform was inflating its membership numbers. A few hundred Reform members mostly drawn from Badenoch’s constituency will gather to hear their leader speak, before posing for a big group pic together. “We’re confident we have more members in North West Essex than the Tories do,” a Reform official quipped.

Also on the Faragenda: The potential cancelation of some local elections due to council reorganization — which Reform centered its latest party broadcast around — and Priti Patel, who earned a swift rebuke from her party leader for offering *that* defense of Tory immigration policy in her Thursday Sun interview. The shadow foreign secretary opted for a Badenoch-ian clarification last night, claiming she actually said she was “not happy” about the high immigration numbers while the Tories were in government.

And it’s true … that Patel said in the interview she was “not fine” with the big rise in immigration. But she also insisted she didn’t mislead voters who were told Brexit would lead to a reduction in immigration (it didn’t), defended her points-based system and said it was “totally distortionary” to suggest the government she served in had thrown open the U.K. borders. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp has the hospital pass of the morning broadcast round for the Tories — timings below.

Getting in on the act: The Lib Dems are sending out Ed Davey to play football and chat about Brexit. He’ll be having a kickabout with some cops and “at-risk youth” in the southwest, with a pool clip expected at noon. He reiterated his (once arch-Remoaner) party’s call for a new U.K.-EU customs union deal in his overnight comments marking the Brexitversary.

Now grab some overpriced booze and read this: POLITICO’s Sophie Inge has a fun read on how Rishi Sunak’s promise of a Brexit-bonus “radical simplification” of Britain’s alcohol taxes hasn’t quite turned out that way.

And this: Weeks before Germany’s election, the BBC is reporting this morning that opposition CDU leader Friedrich Merz will propose legislation on immigration that is designed to stop the far-right AfD owning the narrative … but could end up passing with its help. Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it an “unforgivable mistake.” It feels like a long time since former CDU leader Angela Merkel held out from letting Britain have more immigration carve-outs ahead of the Brexit vote in 2016.

HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS

NEVER-ENDING TURBULENCE: The tremors over the government’s push for a third runway at Heathrow continue, with the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reporting that Climate Secretary Ed Miliband voiced his concerns about the expansion at Cabinet on Tuesday. Spokespeople for Miliband and No. 10 didn’t deny the claim, pointing to the usual no comment on what was discussed in Cabinet — but it’s another awkward story for the government as it looks to present a united front on the push for growth.

Luckily enough: Someone who was in the Cabinet room and will know exactly what Miliband said is on a visit today — and taking questions from environment hacks who’ve spent the last few days thinking about little except Heathrow. Environment Secretary Steve Reed is off on a visit to the Royal Geographical Society this morning, where he’ll speak from 10.30 a.m. to farming groups, landowners and more as he launches a “national conversation” on land use.

Conservation, conversation, consultation: What Reed’s announcement means in practice is a consultation for a new land use framework, aimed at better managing the country’s landscape given climate change and the growing population. Reed will say the highest quality agricultural land will remain protected for food production — but that ministers will also be looking at how and where land can be used for the likes of solar farms and (growth-friendly) reservoirs. The Telegraph splashes on that bit, reporting Reed will say more than 10 percent of farmland will be axed for net zero projects and protecting wildlife.

But I don’t let them tell me what to do: Reed’s allies pushed back on the Telegraph story as a “misrepresentation” last night. To head off even more ill-feeling from farmers toward this government, Reed will insist today that his new framework, when it comes, “will not tell people what to do.”

After that … the environment secretary will take questions from environment hacks, and then sit down with Channel 4 for a lengthy interview. Expect plenty of refusals to talk about private meetings, etc.

Also on the government grid: Policing Minister Diana Johnson is on the morning round for Labour, armed with an announcement and some new funding for neighborhood policing. However, she’ll likely spend a fair bit of time talking about Yvette Cooper’s border security bill (as covered in yesterday’s Playbook PM).

ONE MORE Q FOR JOHNSON AND REED: Is Richard Hermer obstructing government policy? As the persistent briefing against the attorney general continues, the Times’ Geri Scott hears of a backlash from multiple ministers against Hermer’s moves to increase the power of government lawyers. Which isn’t very “cutting the weeds of regulation” of him. Hermer’s allies defend his actions as a necessity to avoid court battles.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Not sitting.

STAY AT HOME, PROTECT THE NHS: The i’s Jane Merrick reports health bosses will soon be told to focus £9 billion of government funding on trying to keep the elderly from being unnecessarily admitted to hospital or care homes, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting tries to ease the bed-blocking that adds to pressure on the health service. The paper splashes on the story.

QUIT THE MAINSTREAM: Political parties will be “left out in the cold” if they do nothing in response to voter dissatisfaction and the rise of populist challengers, according to a report from the Tony Blair Institute. The think tank says parties should “disrupt or be disrupted.” The Guardian has a full write-up.

KERCHING: 68,082 cases of online shopping fraud were reported across the U.K. in the 2023-24 financial year, totaling more than £56 million in losses, according to new stats revealed by a Lib Dem FOI investigation. Read more from PA.

DEMANDING: The BMA wants medical students, private health care staff and GPs to be given the right to strike in Labour’s Employment’s Rights Bill, the Mail’s Martin Beckford reports.

FOR THE FARMERS: 46 Labour MPs have written to the bosses of Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco saying the supermarkets are “failing in [their] moral and commercial obligations to our farmers.” The MPs offered to meet with the executives to discuss how to improve their terms and conditions and “level the playing field.”

BOTTOMS UP! Rachel Reeves’ changes to alcohol duty come into force on Saturday, the Treasury announces overnight. Draught duty will be cut by 1.7 percent — the chancellor said this will equal a penny off a pint — and alcohol duty will rise by 3.6 percent. The Times wrote an explainer of the changes when they were announced.

REPORTS OUT TODAY: Disability benefit claimants received £4.2 billion less than they were entitled to in 2023-24, according to the Public Accounts Committee, which said claimants receive an “unacceptably poor level of service” from DWP … Since 2021, the Home Office has made “little progress” developing measures to prevent violence against women and girls and to deliver long-term change, says the NAO. (The report splashes the Guardian.)

BEYOND THE M25

PLANE CRASH LATEST: U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed there were no survivors in the midair collision near Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. Recovery operations continued overnight on the icy Potomac River, with CBS News reporting that at least 40 bodies had been found so far.

New era begins: At a press briefing Thursday, Trump politicized the worst American air disaster in nearly two decades, telling reporters he believes diversity initiatives could have caused the crash, “because I have common sense.” He went on to attack former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden for the standards of air traffic controllers. More from POLITICO here.

Politics aside, serious safety questions are emerging: The New York Times reported last night that staffing at the air traffic control tower at Ronald Reagan National Airport was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary government report. My colleague Oriana Pawlyk reports that the crash came after years of close calls and warnings about the fragility of the U.S. air safety system.

SERIOUS TRUMP: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump’s desire to buy Greenland is “not a joke,” and that controlling the mineral-rich Arctic territory is “in our national interest and it needs to be solved.” Read more on POLITICO.

OMINOUS NEWS KLAXON: Satellite images show China’s military is building a huge complex 30 km southwest of Beijing which experts believe will house bunkers to protect Chinese military leaders during any conflict — including potentially a nuclear war, the FT reports. Is that … fine?

THE STURGEON SHOW: The Scottish Lobby has been having lots of fun picking through the best lines from a series of oddly very revealing Institute for Government interviews with former Holyrood heavyweights. Among many other things — read the full interviews here — former FM Nicola Sturgeon criticized her successor Humza Yousaf for binning her coalition with the Greens, and for failing to “reset” the party after her sudden resignation. The Scottish Sun and the Times have good write-ups.

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MEDIA ROUND

Crime Minister Diana Johnson broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … GMB (7.15 a.m.) … Today (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.). Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp broadcast round: Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former U.K. Border Force at Calais Chief Immigration Officer Kevin Saunders (8.10 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Conservative MP and Public Accounts Committee Chair Geoffrey Clifton-Brown(8.20 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Brexit turns 5.

Daily Express: ‘We need people who believe in Brexit.’

Daily Mail: Now prove your ‘growth agenda’ isn’t all hot air.

Daily Mirror: Shameful.

Daily Star: Armageddon outta here!

Financial Times: Headwinds and stagnating growth drive ECB to quarter-point rate cut.

i: Treat patients at home to prevent bed blocking, Streeting tells health bosses.

Metro: A nation of shoplifters.

The Daily Telegraph: Tenth of farmland axed for net zero.

The Guardian: Watchdog — women face epidemic of violence.

The Independent: Horror as 67 killed in plane and helicopter crash in Washington.

The Sun: How Vladdy dare you.

The Times: Legal chief ‘is freezing policy.’

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Economist: The revolt against regulation.

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

Power Play: Host Anne McElvoy talks to LinkedIn Co-founder Reid Hoffman about his investments in AI startups and his optimistic vision for the future versus the disruptive force of a world powered by AI.

EU Confidential: Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by former U.S. permanent representative to NATO Ivo Daalder, POLITICO’s Global Playbook author Suzanne Lynch and POLITICO’s labor reporter Nick Niedzwiadek, to talk through Trump’s Europe envoys.

Plus six of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:

Chopper’s political podcast: Former Vote Leave CEO Matthew Elliott, former Lib Dem Leader Vince Cable and Daily Mail parliamentary sketchwriter Quentin Letts mark the Brexit anniversary with host Christopher Hope.

The Rundown: Tory peer and former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine speaks to host Alain Tolhurst about devolution, urban regeneration, the economy and Reform UK.

Encompass: Host Paul Adamson talks to Labour MP and Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chair Emily Thornberry about Britain’s reputation on the international stage.

The Daily T: Former Chief Brexit Negotiator David Frost tells hosts Camilla Tominey and Kamal Ahmed how he thinks Brexit can be “rescued.”

Leading: Uzi Arad, a former national security adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, joins hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart to discuss intelligence agencies, Netanyahu and confidence in the Gaza cease-fire.

Lord Speaker’s Corner: Broadcaster and Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika discusses how she thought she was going to get canceled (but got a peerage instead), PMQs and retail crime.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: We’ll start the day with heavy downpours, changing to overcast by lunchtime. High 8C, low 6C.

CALL AN EMERGENCY PODCAST: JD Vance took time out from being U.S. vice president to have a go at podcaster Rory Stewart’s IQ.

AND MANY MORE: Newsnight is celebrating 45 years since it was first broadcast. There’s a fun round-up of big moments over on their X account.

CHEERS TO THAT! POLITICO is joining forces with the Munich Security Conference in an inaugural partnership — and we’re welcoming with it the first POLITICO Pub. Pretzel and schnitzel availability tbc. Join our all-star team at MSC from Thursday, Feb. 13. Full details here.

NOW READ: This blood pressure-raising piece in the Economist on the 12-hour A&E waits and the problems plaguing the NHS.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former Supreme Court President and crossbench peer Brenda Hale … Tory peer Stewart Jackson … Liberal Democrat peer Elizabeth Barker … LBC presenter Nick Ferrari … crossbench peer Michael Bichard … FCDO’s Director General Europe Deborah Bronnert.

Celebrating over the weekend: East Worthing and Shoreham MP Tom Rutland … Conservative peer Eleanor Laing … former Falkirk MP John McNally … Iceland’s former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir … Exeter MP Steve Race … former Redcar MP Jacob Young … former Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam … former Paisley and Renfrewshire North MP Gavin Newlands … former Lord Speaker Norman Fowler … Labour peer John Eatwell.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Catherine Bouris.

Source: POLITICO SRL · Rue de la Loi 62 · Brussels 1040 · Belgium