DYNAMIC EVENTS LIMITED

EU NEWS

By GERARDO FORTUNA

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

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CIAO THERE. It’s Gerardo Fortuna, holding a more stable majority (of readers, that is) than most politicians in town. Nick Vinocur returns Friday.

DRIVING THE DAY: THE MULTIPLE-MAJORITY PARLIAMENT

COMING TO TERMS WITH POLITICAL REALITY: After the 2024 EU election, many in Brussels insisted the political center had held. That wishful thinking is all but gone in the European Parliament’s hallways.

No longer taboo: The existence of two working majorities — one centrist (EPP, S&D, Renew) and one right-wing (EPP plus conservatives and far-right groups) — is now openly acknowledged. Few MEPs pretend otherwise, and even leadership figures publicly accept this reality.

How it works: Over the past year, the EPP has learned to make the most of the Parliament’s new arithmetic — pushing files through either by quietly securing support from the far right (while denying any formal coordination) or by using that potential alliance as leverage to make centrists fold.

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The smoking gun: That takes us to the latest development with the omnibus — a package put forward by the Commission to slash environmental red tape for businesses. The center right put forward its own amendments, which haven’t been negotiated with any other groups but are crafted to appeal to parts of the right, the far right and even bits of Renew — thus sidelining Socialists and Greens. Full details on that here.

Socialists swallowing it: The S&D, once quick to rage at EPP flirtation with the far right, has quietly adapted. Instead of fighting every move, it now picks its moments — flexing when it really counts, as in the case of the EU’s long-term budget, where they teamed up with the center and center left to challenge the Commission’s proposal.

Metsola’s role: Some have started linking this shift to another major one: Parliament President Roberta Metsola opening the door to alternative majorities (including on the right) at last month’s EU summit to pass the simplification agenda. Her supporters say she’s just representing the institution — and any majority that it forms. Critics say she’s getting ready for a third term supported by far-right groups.

The Metsola-Costa ticket: There’s speculation that connects these two dots. Socialists are ready to back Metsola for another term as Parliament president — even if she edges closer to the far right — to keep their man António Costa at the helm of the European Council.

Breaking it down: The S&D has more to lose by not supporting Metsola for a third term and insisting on one of its own for the job (per the deal struck with the EPP). That’s because while the group remains the second-largest in the European Parliament, the Socialists are vastly depleted in the European Council, with only Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Malta’s Robert Abela at the table. Keeping the Council presidency means grasping on for influence in the powerful institution.

Checks out: One Socialist MEP said the theory “makes sense.” Another parliamentary source put it more bluntly: The S&D risks being weakened further if it insists on the EPP sticking to the power-sharing deal, “and clearly, Metsola got the message.”

2029, anyone? An EPP insider said Metsola’s recent decision not to run for her party leadership in Malta was “a European, rather than national choice.” The implication is her future is in Brussels, where she could seek to be the EPP’s pick to succeed Ursula von der Leyen at the helm of the Commission in 2029.

Weber’s word is gospel: But apart from speculation, for now, power still flows through the largest party. Take the ongoing budget fight. Only after group leader Manfred Weber signaled the EPP’s readiness to challenge the Commission’s proposal did the S&D and Renew start flexing. As one Parliament official (after a few glasses of wine) put it: “Everything the EPP farts becomes Parliament’s position.”

What’s next: Most files will still pass with a centrist majority. But on migration, green policy and social issues, the gravitational pull is shifting rightward. The real test comes Nov. 12, when the EPP will decide whether to cross the rubicon and pass a major file with far-right votes.

BACK TO THE EU BUDGET FIGHT: The European Commission didn’t bring any concrete concessions to appease the Parliament’s concerns on the MFF during a meeting with its top brass on Wednesday. Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin told POLITICO the executive took MEPs’ criticism into account and is considering “legal changes” to appease them — but he wouldn’t say whether the Commission was ready to amend the proposal. Max Griera has more.

COP30 TALKFEST

CLIMATE CRUNCH: The COP30 U.N. climate summit officially kicks off on Monday, but world leaders are gathering over the next two days in Belém, on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, for a packed agenda of (lots of) speeches, bilats and sprawling “thematic sessions.” Follow along with all our coverage here.

Who’s going: Expect the usual European suspects — French President Emmanuel Macron (who’ll stay in town for a total of six hours, POLITICO’s been told), German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as well as Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa.

Who’s not: Donald Trump — but his shadow looms large. Read this piece from our Stateside colleague Sara Schonhardt on how, 10 years on from the Paris Agreement, the U.S. switched sides.

Set your clocks 4 hours back: The action starts at 10 a.m. local time (2 p.m. in Brussels). The EU duo — Costa and von der Leyen — will address the leaders’ plenary together, sharing their slot in institutional solidarity, so at least attendees don’t hear the same message twice. Their bilats are still being finalized — and are subject to last-minute changes, their teams warned.

Forever Fund, I wanna be Forever Fund: Costa will also attend the Tropical Forest Forever Fund launch today, hosted by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The initiative aims to channel new cash into conserving tropical forests — vital carbon sinks and biodiversity hotspots. (Von der Leyen met Lula last night.)

But don’t get too excited. Both the EU and the U.K. say they back the idea of the fund, but neither Brusselsnor Westminster wants to stump up cash.

Divide and conquer: The EU duo will split duties. Costa speaks this evening at the Climate and Nature: Forests and Oceans thematic session, while von der Leyen takes over Friday for sessions on the energy transition and industry decarbonization.

VDL PREVIEW: “At COP30 this week, we will underline our strong commitment to the Paris Agreement,” the Commission chief said in a written statement Wednesday. “The global clean transition is ongoing and irreversible.” (The EU’s priorities for the summit are here.) It was a bold line, given the Commission nearly arrived in Belém empty-handed …

Climate drama: EU governments struck a messy, 11th-hour deal on the bloc’s 2035 and 2040 climate targets early Wednesday after nearly 24 hours of talks. National officials told Playbook negotiations hit their peak around 1 a.m. when Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra personally huddled with a blocking minority of 10 countries led by Italy. Two hours later, a compromise was reached and sent to ministers, who approved it at 9 a.m.

But at what price: The deal largely accommodated the minority’s demands — weakening existing laws and slowing national emissions-cutting efforts. Still, the outcome was met with relief in Brussels, where officials had feared an embarrassing collapse on the eve of COP30.

Was it worth it? “We have deliberately built a broad coalition. Of course, we could’ve tried to stop at the bare minimum” of a majority, a visibly exhausted Hoekstra told POLITICO’s Zia Weise after the talks. (Hoekstra heads to Belém on Monday to start negotiations on the global deal.)

Big picture: The compromise cements a broader shift empowering countries skeptical of the EU’s Green Deal ambitions. Read the full story by Zia, Louise Guillot and Karl Mathiesen.

PASSPORT POLITICS

RUSSIAN VISA SCOOP: Brussels is about to make life harder for Russian travelers as it is set to tighten visa rules for Russian citizens — effectively killing off multi-entry Schengen permits in most cases — three European officials told my colleague Seb Starcevic. The measure is part of a package intended to choke off the flow of Russians entering the bloc. Formal adoption and implementation are expected in the coming days.

Not a full ban: It’s another step in the bloc’s efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. However, visa policy remains a national competence, so while the Commission can crank up the bureaucracy, it can’t slam the door entirely.

One trip only: Under the new rules, most Russians will only be granted single-entry visas, with some exceptions for humanitarian reasons or for individuals who also hold EU citizenship.

Turning the screws: Brussels had already made it harder — and pricier — for Russians to get Schengen visas after suspending the EU’s visa facilitation agreement with Moscow in late 2022. Some member countries, notably the Baltics, have gone even further by barring or severely restricting Russian arrivals altogether.

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AGENDA ITEMS OFF THE RADAR

SPOTLIGHT ON: EU institutions now dutifully post their agendas online — but some meetings fly under the official radar. There are two we’re watching today …

IN BRUSSELS: First up, the so-called special chefs meeting — EU jargon for a gathering of senior Cabinet members from each commissioner’s team, the Legal Service and the Commission’s secretariat-general. It’s the final pit stop after inter-service consultations (when all the DGs have finished work on a draft law) and before the Monday Hebdo with the heads of Cabinet — the last hurdle before the College.

What the chefs are cooking today: The Democracy Package and the Culture Compass for Europe, both set for publication next Wednesday. The Democracy Package is the one to watch — it includes a long-awaited proposal for a “Democracy Shield.”

Long time coming: Flagged by von der Leyen at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit in May 2024, the initiative is meant to protect the EU from foreign interference and disinformation. But its debut has been repeatedly delayed, for reasons that have more to do with internal turf wars than drafting issues, three EU and parliamentary sources said.

The sticking point: The plan for a European Centre for Democratic Resilience — which was originally meant to sit under von der Leyen’s direct control, later shifted to DG COMM (still seen as close to her Cabinet) — ran into pushback from DG Connect, which didn’t fancy the encroachment on its territory.

All settled? One EU official downplayed it as the usual DG COMM–DG Connect drama (“and it won’t be the last”). Another said the proposed setup has been defused — with the center no longer expected to fall under either DG COMM or von der Leyen’s direct oversight in a draft the chefs are expecting today. “But never say never,” they added.

IN BERLIN: Meanwhile, over in Berlin, the German EPP delegation (the CSU and the CDU) is gathering at — of all places — the China Club at the Adlon Palais.

(Justified) snub: Friedrich Merz was originally meant to attend, but opted for Belém instead. His absence is being read as a missed chance for Brussels-based German MEPs to reconnect with national politics — and with industry heavyweights.

Why it matters: With delegation co-leader Daniel Caspary preparing to leave Parliament for a job back home, and fellow co-leader Angelika Niebler under investigation for alleged misuse of EU funds, the meeting could well mark the opening salvo in the race to lead one of Parliament’s most influential national groups.

CRISIS À LA BELGE

BUDGET STALEMATE — BUT ALSO A GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE? Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s deadline for his government to cement a budget deal that cuts €10 billion in spending expires today. De Wever vowed to pay a visit to the king if the deal wasn’t done.

De Wever is expected to see the king at midday. His pledge to do so in absence of a deal has been widely interpreted as a threat to resign, toppling his government a mere nine months into its term.

But that’s not his only option. The prime minister’s visit could be a tool to heap pressure on negotiators, or a catch-up to figure out what’s next. Even if he does offer his resignation, it’s not a given the king would accept it.

ICYMI: The stalemate follows tense negotiations to cut Belgian spending, as coalition partners balked at proposals to increase value-added tax or skip an automatic wage indexation. By Wednesday evening, last-ditch meetings with deputies from the different parties had failed to produce a deal, and further talks were put off until today.

Bad week: The domestic budget tensions come on top of the pressure Belgium faces at the EU level over the plans to use sanctioned Russian funds — most of which are held by the Brussels-based financial firm Euroclear — to support Ukraine.

But first: Before the prime minister visits the king, he’s got a national security council to deal with. Key ministers are meeting police, military and intelligence services to discuss the drone incursions over Belgian military bases and its main airport, which security services believe have been orchestrated by Russia. The Russian embassy denied Moscow’s involvement, telling broadcaster VRT it has neither “motives, nor interest in such activities.”

FROZEN ASSETS — DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH: Could a political shake-up change Belgium’s stance on using frozen Russian assets? Not likely, several Belgian government officials told Playbook. “Basically impossible,” one said.

Meanwhile, a new player enters: The Commission appointed Alberto de Gregorio Merino as the new director-general of its Legal Service — the powerful department that advises the Commission and defends it in court.

Big shoes to fill: De Gregorio Merino succeeds Daniel Calleja Crespo, a widely respected figure in Berlaymont circles. “Everyone loved him,” one Commission official sighed — adding that de Gregorio Merino inherits a hefty to-do list.

Top of that list: Crafting a watertight legal framework to fend off Russian claims on Euroclear’s holdings — a task that will only grow in importance if the frozen assets become Brussels’ main vehicle to fund Ukraine’s financial needs.

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IN OTHER NEWS

MORE TARIFFS ON IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA: Seven EU countries — Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden — suggested the Commission should propose tariffs on Russian products which generated export revenues of €5.4 billion in 2024. Koen Verhelst has the scoop for Pro readers.

TRUMP’S TARIFFS ARE IN TROUBLE: The U.S. Supreme Court gave Donald Trump’s lawyer a pretty tough time at the highly anticipated hearing on the legality of his administration’s sweeping tariffs on Wednesday.

Blocking the Tax Man: Lead judge John Roberts questioned why Trump believed he had the authority to impose tariffs, because it’s always been the U.S. Congress that raises taxes. Read the dispatch from our D.C. colleagues. Ursula von der Leyen’s dogma that “tariffs are taxes” seemed to resonate in the courtroom as the major flaw in Trump’s rationale.

Advice from the Tax Lady: The EU’s former competition chief Margrethe Vestager has two tips on how to deal with Trump: occasionally fight back; don’t take the bait. My colleague Gregorio Sorgi has more.

MACRON TAKES (UN)FRIENDLY FIRE: There was a time when Alain Minc would sing the praises of French President Emmanuel Macron. Eight years later and Minc, Macron’s former mentor, told my colleague Clea Caulcutt he’s the “worst” president since France’s Fifth Republic was founded in 1958.

AGENDA

— European leaders arrive in Belém, Brazil for climate talks.

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola receives Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister José Manuel Albares Bueno at 10:15 a.m. and Slovak National Council Speaker Richard Raši at 12:30 p.m.

— Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi meets CDU/CSU parliamentary group chairs from Bavaria, Saxony and Thuringia.

— Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath is in Shanghai.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 16C. Sunny.

EYES ON THE ROAD: Brussels’ automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras have become the first in Belgium to connect to the national platform, enabling instant data sharing between police services to help track vehicles linked to criminal activity. Interior Minister Bernard Quintin announced the decision on Wednesday, hailing it as an important step in the fight against organized crime, drug and human trafficking. Around 400 cameras in the capital are already operational. BRUZZ has more.

BIRTHDAYS: Former European Commissioner Janez Lenarčič; MEPs Nadine Morano and Michael Bloss; former MEP Petr Mach; Chess Grandmaster Dana Reizniece-Ozola, Latvia’s former finance minister and POLITICO 28 alum; Rud Pedersen’s Alexandria Hicks; Euronews’ Alice Tidey; Bellona Europa’s Jonas Helseth; Belgian Nobel Prize winner in physics François Englert.

THANKS TO: Max Griera, James Fernyhough, Seb Starcevic, Hanne Cokelaere, Eliza Gkritsi, Francesca Micheletti, Jacopo Barigazzi. Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Elena Giordano and producer Dean Southwell.

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By ANDREW MCDONALD with BETHANY DAWSON PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Subscribe for free | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser

Good Friday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.

DRIVING THE DAY

BREXIT, FIVE YEARS ON: It feels now like a distant memory. But on this day five years ago, the slogans, campaigns, meaningful votes, Cooper and Grieve amendments and elaborate Chequers/Malthouse/Super Canada plans that consumed our politics for so long culminated in the U.K. finally leaving the European Union — to the (recorded) bongs of Big Ben. Westminster’s dictionary has moved on now to missions, milestones, steps and foundations. But the Brexit tune is still playing softly in the background, its lasting effect on British life plain to see … even if Keir Starmer doesn’t want to talk about it.

A stroll down memory lane: Cast your mind back to Playbook on the morning of Jan. 31, 2020. Boris Johnson and his Cabinet met in Sunderland for a day of “deliberately muted celebrations” to mark the start of the frenetic 11-month transition period that would culminate in a trade deal. Johnson would later declare the moment a “dawn of a new era” (yep, turned out true) and the beginning of “real national renewal” (debatable).

And in the opposition: Some Labour leadership contender called Keir Starmer responded “yes, of course,” when asked by some Lobby hack whether he would bring back freedom of movement for EU citizens if he ever became prime minister. Whatever happened to that guy?

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But just weeks later … the runaway Brexit train was finally derailed in the news agenda by a Covid-19 pandemic that claimed the lives of millions across the globe. The story never fully got back on the rails since, with Johnson making way for two further (doomed) Conservative prime ministers before Labour swept to power with a landslide … and then discovered how hard the whole government thing is.

Where are they now? Brexit-consumed PMs David Cameron and Theresa May are in the Lords, alongside Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott and negotiator David Frost … Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are back in the journalism game … Dominic Cummings is angry blogging again, while still fancying another crack at upending British politics … ex-No. 10 Director of Comms Lee Cain runs an advisory firm … former Brexit secretaries David Davis and Steve Barclay are enjoying the opposition life while Dominic Raab advises the, err, “World Gold Council” … “Mr. Brexit” Donald Trump is, well, you know that one … Mark Francois is a shadow defense minister … Steve Baker has gone skydiving … and Vote Leave Chair Gisela Stuart has ended up in charge of the interview process to appoint a sherpa to help renegotiate the Brexit settlement. Funny how these things turn out.

And on the other side: Ex-Chancellor Philip Hammond is in the Lords … David Gauke stood as an independent and is now leading a sentencing review for Labour … Dominic Grieve stood as an independent, too … Anna Soubry backed Labour and is back to criminal law … Our Future Our Choice activists Will Dry and Lara Spirit regenerated into a Tory plotter and top Lobby journo respectively … EU negotiator Michel Barnier managed to last the length of two Liz Truss premierships as French PM until being forced out in December … his sparring partner Olly Robbins is the top civil servant in the Foreign Office … legal warrior Gina Miller runs a very unsuccessful political party … and you probably know what happened to the shadow Brexit secretary who pushed for a second referendum.

It ain’t over till it’s over: Despite all the change, the future of what Britain looks like outside the EU is a very open question. We’ve entered a new phase in which Starmer is seeking a closer relationship with Brussels, and he will meet the 27 EU leaders on Monday as the first British leader to attend the informal gathering since Brexit.

To state the obvious: Starmer — who has nothing public-facing on the agenda today — won’t be saying anything today to mark the anniversary. Which leaves the other prime ministerial contenders and pretenders space to claim a slice of the limelight.

The survivor: Of those most involved in angling for Britain’s departure from the EU, Nigel Farage is one of the few who remains a truly central figure in Westminster. The Reform UK leader will be back on telly screens later with a carefully-timed speech at a rally in Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s constituency from 7 p.m. (and lots of interviews). As you might expect, Farage — like many of his fellow Brexiteers — isn’t altogether pleased with how things have turned out. He told his GB News show last night he is “disappointed in the way it’s been delivered.” Just wait ’til you get to the Remainers.

The rally was originally organized … to rub it in Badenoch’s face after she claimed over Christmas that Reform was inflating its membership numbers. A few hundred Reform members mostly drawn from Badenoch’s constituency will gather to hear their leader speak, before posing for a big group pic together. “We’re confident we have more members in North West Essex than the Tories do,” a Reform official quipped.

Also on the Faragenda: The potential cancelation of some local elections due to council reorganization — which Reform centered its latest party broadcast around — and Priti Patel, who earned a swift rebuke from her party leader for offering *that* defense of Tory immigration policy in her Thursday Sun interview. The shadow foreign secretary opted for a Badenoch-ian clarification last night, claiming she actually said she was “not happy” about the high immigration numbers while the Tories were in government.

And it’s true … that Patel said in the interview she was “not fine” with the big rise in immigration. But she also insisted she didn’t mislead voters who were told Brexit would lead to a reduction in immigration (it didn’t), defended her points-based system and said it was “totally distortionary” to suggest the government she served in had thrown open the U.K. borders. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp has the hospital pass of the morning broadcast round for the Tories — timings below.

Getting in on the act: The Lib Dems are sending out Ed Davey to play football and chat about Brexit. He’ll be having a kickabout with some cops and “at-risk youth” in the southwest, with a pool clip expected at noon. He reiterated his (once arch-Remoaner) party’s call for a new U.K.-EU customs union deal in his overnight comments marking the Brexitversary.

Now grab some overpriced booze and read this: POLITICO’s Sophie Inge has a fun read on how Rishi Sunak’s promise of a Brexit-bonus “radical simplification” of Britain’s alcohol taxes hasn’t quite turned out that way.

And this: Weeks before Germany’s election, the BBC is reporting this morning that opposition CDU leader Friedrich Merz will propose legislation on immigration that is designed to stop the far-right AfD owning the narrative … but could end up passing with its help. Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it an “unforgivable mistake.” It feels like a long time since former CDU leader Angela Merkel held out from letting Britain have more immigration carve-outs ahead of the Brexit vote in 2016.

HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS

NEVER-ENDING TURBULENCE: The tremors over the government’s push for a third runway at Heathrow continue, with the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reporting that Climate Secretary Ed Miliband voiced his concerns about the expansion at Cabinet on Tuesday. Spokespeople for Miliband and No. 10 didn’t deny the claim, pointing to the usual no comment on what was discussed in Cabinet — but it’s another awkward story for the government as it looks to present a united front on the push for growth.

Luckily enough: Someone who was in the Cabinet room and will know exactly what Miliband said is on a visit today — and taking questions from environment hacks who’ve spent the last few days thinking about little except Heathrow. Environment Secretary Steve Reed is off on a visit to the Royal Geographical Society this morning, where he’ll speak from 10.30 a.m. to farming groups, landowners and more as he launches a “national conversation” on land use.

Conservation, conversation, consultation: What Reed’s announcement means in practice is a consultation for a new land use framework, aimed at better managing the country’s landscape given climate change and the growing population. Reed will say the highest quality agricultural land will remain protected for food production — but that ministers will also be looking at how and where land can be used for the likes of solar farms and (growth-friendly) reservoirs. The Telegraph splashes on that bit, reporting Reed will say more than 10 percent of farmland will be axed for net zero projects and protecting wildlife.

But I don’t let them tell me what to do: Reed’s allies pushed back on the Telegraph story as a “misrepresentation” last night. To head off even more ill-feeling from farmers toward this government, Reed will insist today that his new framework, when it comes, “will not tell people what to do.”

After that … the environment secretary will take questions from environment hacks, and then sit down with Channel 4 for a lengthy interview. Expect plenty of refusals to talk about private meetings, etc.

Also on the government grid: Policing Minister Diana Johnson is on the morning round for Labour, armed with an announcement and some new funding for neighborhood policing. However, she’ll likely spend a fair bit of time talking about Yvette Cooper’s border security bill (as covered in yesterday’s Playbook PM).

ONE MORE Q FOR JOHNSON AND REED: Is Richard Hermer obstructing government policy? As the persistent briefing against the attorney general continues, the Times’ Geri Scott hears of a backlash from multiple ministers against Hermer’s moves to increase the power of government lawyers. Which isn’t very “cutting the weeds of regulation” of him. Hermer’s allies defend his actions as a necessity to avoid court battles.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Not sitting.

STAY AT HOME, PROTECT THE NHS: The i’s Jane Merrick reports health bosses will soon be told to focus £9 billion of government funding on trying to keep the elderly from being unnecessarily admitted to hospital or care homes, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting tries to ease the bed-blocking that adds to pressure on the health service. The paper splashes on the story.

QUIT THE MAINSTREAM: Political parties will be “left out in the cold” if they do nothing in response to voter dissatisfaction and the rise of populist challengers, according to a report from the Tony Blair Institute. The think tank says parties should “disrupt or be disrupted.” The Guardian has a full write-up.

KERCHING: 68,082 cases of online shopping fraud were reported across the U.K. in the 2023-24 financial year, totaling more than £56 million in losses, according to new stats revealed by a Lib Dem FOI investigation. Read more from PA.

DEMANDING: The BMA wants medical students, private health care staff and GPs to be given the right to strike in Labour’s Employment’s Rights Bill, the Mail’s Martin Beckford reports.

FOR THE FARMERS: 46 Labour MPs have written to the bosses of Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco saying the supermarkets are “failing in [their] moral and commercial obligations to our farmers.” The MPs offered to meet with the executives to discuss how to improve their terms and conditions and “level the playing field.”

BOTTOMS UP! Rachel Reeves’ changes to alcohol duty come into force on Saturday, the Treasury announces overnight. Draught duty will be cut by 1.7 percent — the chancellor said this will equal a penny off a pint — and alcohol duty will rise by 3.6 percent. The Times wrote an explainer of the changes when they were announced.

REPORTS OUT TODAY: Disability benefit claimants received £4.2 billion less than they were entitled to in 2023-24, according to the Public Accounts Committee, which said claimants receive an “unacceptably poor level of service” from DWP … Since 2021, the Home Office has made “little progress” developing measures to prevent violence against women and girls and to deliver long-term change, says the NAO. (The report splashes the Guardian.)

BEYOND THE M25

PLANE CRASH LATEST: U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed there were no survivors in the midair collision near Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. Recovery operations continued overnight on the icy Potomac River, with CBS News reporting that at least 40 bodies had been found so far.

New era begins: At a press briefing Thursday, Trump politicized the worst American air disaster in nearly two decades, telling reporters he believes diversity initiatives could have caused the crash, “because I have common sense.” He went on to attack former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden for the standards of air traffic controllers. More from POLITICO here.

Politics aside, serious safety questions are emerging: The New York Times reported last night that staffing at the air traffic control tower at Ronald Reagan National Airport was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary government report. My colleague Oriana Pawlyk reports that the crash came after years of close calls and warnings about the fragility of the U.S. air safety system.

SERIOUS TRUMP: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump’s desire to buy Greenland is “not a joke,” and that controlling the mineral-rich Arctic territory is “in our national interest and it needs to be solved.” Read more on POLITICO.

OMINOUS NEWS KLAXON: Satellite images show China’s military is building a huge complex 30 km southwest of Beijing which experts believe will house bunkers to protect Chinese military leaders during any conflict — including potentially a nuclear war, the FT reports. Is that … fine?

THE STURGEON SHOW: The Scottish Lobby has been having lots of fun picking through the best lines from a series of oddly very revealing Institute for Government interviews with former Holyrood heavyweights. Among many other things — read the full interviews here — former FM Nicola Sturgeon criticized her successor Humza Yousaf for binning her coalition with the Greens, and for failing to “reset” the party after her sudden resignation. The Scottish Sun and the Times have good write-ups.

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MEDIA ROUND

Crime Minister Diana Johnson broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … GMB (7.15 a.m.) … Today (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.). Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp broadcast round: Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former U.K. Border Force at Calais Chief Immigration Officer Kevin Saunders (8.10 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Conservative MP and Public Accounts Committee Chair Geoffrey Clifton-Brown(8.20 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Brexit turns 5.

Daily Express: ‘We need people who believe in Brexit.’

Daily Mail: Now prove your ‘growth agenda’ isn’t all hot air.

Daily Mirror: Shameful.

Daily Star: Armageddon outta here!

Financial Times: Headwinds and stagnating growth drive ECB to quarter-point rate cut.

i: Treat patients at home to prevent bed blocking, Streeting tells health bosses.

Metro: A nation of shoplifters.

The Daily Telegraph: Tenth of farmland axed for net zero.

The Guardian: Watchdog — women face epidemic of violence.

The Independent: Horror as 67 killed in plane and helicopter crash in Washington.

The Sun: How Vladdy dare you.

The Times: Legal chief ‘is freezing policy.’

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Economist: The revolt against regulation.

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

Power Play: Host Anne McElvoy talks to LinkedIn Co-founder Reid Hoffman about his investments in AI startups and his optimistic vision for the future versus the disruptive force of a world powered by AI.

EU Confidential: Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by former U.S. permanent representative to NATO Ivo Daalder, POLITICO’s Global Playbook author Suzanne Lynch and POLITICO’s labor reporter Nick Niedzwiadek, to talk through Trump’s Europe envoys.

Plus six of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:

Chopper’s political podcast: Former Vote Leave CEO Matthew Elliott, former Lib Dem Leader Vince Cable and Daily Mail parliamentary sketchwriter Quentin Letts mark the Brexit anniversary with host Christopher Hope.

The Rundown: Tory peer and former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine speaks to host Alain Tolhurst about devolution, urban regeneration, the economy and Reform UK.

Encompass: Host Paul Adamson talks to Labour MP and Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chair Emily Thornberry about Britain’s reputation on the international stage.

The Daily T: Former Chief Brexit Negotiator David Frost tells hosts Camilla Tominey and Kamal Ahmed how he thinks Brexit can be “rescued.”

Leading: Uzi Arad, a former national security adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, joins hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart to discuss intelligence agencies, Netanyahu and confidence in the Gaza cease-fire.

Lord Speaker’s Corner: Broadcaster and Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika discusses how she thought she was going to get canceled (but got a peerage instead), PMQs and retail crime.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: We’ll start the day with heavy downpours, changing to overcast by lunchtime. High 8C, low 6C.

CALL AN EMERGENCY PODCAST: JD Vance took time out from being U.S. vice president to have a go at podcaster Rory Stewart’s IQ.

AND MANY MORE: Newsnight is celebrating 45 years since it was first broadcast. There’s a fun round-up of big moments over on their X account.

CHEERS TO THAT! POLITICO is joining forces with the Munich Security Conference in an inaugural partnership — and we’re welcoming with it the first POLITICO Pub. Pretzel and schnitzel availability tbc. Join our all-star team at MSC from Thursday, Feb. 13. Full details here.

NOW READ: This blood pressure-raising piece in the Economist on the 12-hour A&E waits and the problems plaguing the NHS.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former Supreme Court President and crossbench peer Brenda Hale … Tory peer Stewart Jackson … Liberal Democrat peer Elizabeth Barker … LBC presenter Nick Ferrari … crossbench peer Michael Bichard … FCDO’s Director General Europe Deborah Bronnert.

Celebrating over the weekend: East Worthing and Shoreham MP Tom Rutland … Conservative peer Eleanor Laing … former Falkirk MP John McNally … Iceland’s former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir … Exeter MP Steve Race … former Redcar MP Jacob Young … former Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam … former Paisley and Renfrewshire North MP Gavin Newlands … former Lord Speaker Norman Fowler … Labour peer John Eatwell.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Catherine Bouris.

Source: POLITICO SRL · Rue de la Loi 62 · Brussels 1040 · Belgium